I'm skeptical of the AOT effectiveness table. Isn't the AOT effectiveness table comparing lifetime incarceration rates to the incarceration rate during the AOT program? Those don't have equal duration. Suppose each untreated mentally ill person has a constant per-year risk of being incarcerated. AOT could have impressive reductions in in…
I'm skeptical of the AOT effectiveness table. Isn't the AOT effectiveness table comparing lifetime incarceration rates to the incarceration rate during the AOT program? Those don't have equal duration. Suppose each untreated mentally ill person has a constant per-year risk of being incarcerated. AOT could have impressive reductions in incarceration, even if it did literally nothing, because the AOT program's duration is shorter than their prior lifetime.
I'm skeptical of the AOT effectiveness table. Isn't the AOT effectiveness table comparing lifetime incarceration rates to the incarceration rate during the AOT program? Those don't have equal duration. Suppose each untreated mentally ill person has a constant per-year risk of being incarcerated. AOT could have impressive reductions in incarceration, even if it did literally nothing, because the AOT program's duration is shorter than their prior lifetime.