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A pretty sensible summary of our current situation and the research. In my view the article GREATLY underappreciates the double whammy created by covid 19 beginning in Martch 2020. In Chicago at least, this very very quickly led to a big decline in discretionary enforcement activity, routine patrolling, responses to (usually false) alarms, issuing minor traffic citations, and the like. The coppers did a better jog at sustaining gun seizures and other important matters, but the covid whammy was a hard blow. You will recall that the rest of us also were trying to stay 10 feet from everybody and we locked our doors when we were exposed or even just got the sniffles - that was real life in the Terrible Twenties.

Wesley G. Skogan

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I suspect it played a big role but also think many of the measures taken to address COVID would drive down nonDV homicides as well. Closing bars and reducing parties, group drinking would have some impact.

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I imagine the largest impact on policing/crime that is directly COVID related was the release of large portions of the jailed population and changes that prevented intake of newly arrested people. Any COVID effect has to deal with the above mentioned 1) not in the US and 2) not until after George Floyd issues. For 1), I am curious how other developed nations handled the jail/prison population issue. Perhaps they already used more probation, or had more space, or had buildings they felt they could quarantine better than US Jails. For 2), I can see a lag in releasing jail populations as offenders (I imagine) try to stay out of trouble for a bit, with the lack of intake being the bigger issue once the summer homicide and violence wave came.

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